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PrimaryCast upgrades PA-18 primary to “Very Competitive” and gives Jerry Dickinson a 71% chance of winning

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PrimaryCast, a Democratic primary prediction model, upgraded the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district from “Competitive” to “Very Competitive”, giving Jerry Dickinson a 71% chance of winning over 26-year incumbent Congressman Mike Doyle. 

The upgraded ranking comes on the heels of a record-breaking fundraising quarter from Jerry Dickinson’s campaign and the announcement of 10 endorsements from local elected officials, community leaders, and activists

Jerry Dickinson is a constitutional law professor at the University of Pittsburgh, and a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. Dickinson’s background and personal story have inspired a progressive grassroots campaign throughout the 18th District to elect a member of Congress who truly understands the challenges we face. A product of the foster system in Pittsburgh, Dickinson saw firsthand the systematic challenges that cause and perpetuate social and racial inequality. He beat the odds and has dedicated his life to tackling the structural problems he has witnessed and lived through. In Congress, he will bring the energy and perspective needed to lift those left behind, and truly create opportunity for all.

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BACKGROUND: PA-18 is currently represented by Democrat Rep. Mike Doyle, who was first elected in 1994. In Q2, Dickinson’s campaign raised over $210,000—outraising Doyle’s campaign by over $153,000 and setting a new record for the most money any candidate has ever raised in a fundraising quarter in the history of the district. If elected, Dickinson will be the first Black congressperson from Western Pennsylvania.